22

I am sitting in a cafe next to Victoria Station waiting for the nextt Oxford tube. Nearby, I can overhear some people arguing that with globalization, internet should be free for all. And perhaps in ten years, one will no longer need to pay for it in public places. As it is my birthday I thought I would treat myself to a latte. And there is free wifi! Had a great dinner last night at Kastoori, in Tooting, with Granny and Jeremy, Ant and Cath, and Lou and Bertrand, which was good fun, and very generous of Jeremy. Didn't quite get the lie in I was hoping for, as Alice and Jamie came terring down, but a good breakfast and nice to see the family on my birthday. Went walking around Green Park, and all the 'fancy' shops on Bond street, regent street etc. and spent a bit of time at the India Tourism Ministry, getting some travel info. Back to Oxford now, and then a spot of golf in the evening and a few drinks to see off the day.

On a more philosophical side, 22. Well. It seems like after my 18th birthday, every birthday seems to come quicker and quicker. I can clearly remember last year having some mates around to play poker, and now that day has come around.

A birthday is special, but only to oneself. Other than that, it is just a normal day, of which is often not really different to any other. Except you get a bit of attention. 22 is getting on. Soon, it will be 23, then 24 and so on. Perhaps the lesson, is just to live every day as it was the last?

At least your birthday gives you a bit of time to think about yourself afterall!

A working day

It is 4.37am, and I am just back from a shift at BMW. Another shift at another job at 9am this morning. Four hours sleep, or shall I read a book, until next shift? Welcome to the working life. I hope that by the time I go to India next month, I will have done my fair share of mundane jobs and get something a bit more decent, but for all the workers, who know nothing else, I sympathise hugely. Karl Marx would be horrified at the thought of working night shifts at a factory.. Quite right. As a family man, where is one supposed to find time for their families etc... Perhaps, this is the 'broken Britain' Cameron always talks about...

Anyway, the birds are starting to tweet...

End of Brookes... and plans for the future

I am sitting in the 'Shakesheare' pub in Victoria, having just submitted my India visa application. All going well, I should have it by next week, and, with ticket already purchased, I should be on the way to the sub-continent in mid August.

Last few weeks have been tiring but much fun. Graduation last week which the parents came over for. The ceremony was short and sweet and I was awarded a prize that I won last year. A dinner with some mates and parents at the Magdalen arms where pies were absolutely massive, and then London to say by to my parents. We watched warhorse which was nothing short of brilliant, and then went back to the hotel for the night. I drove up to Oxford with a mate, and then went up to Yorkshire for a 'hunt ball'. Really good night, and then back to Oxford on Sunday evening, for a 6am start at BMW the next day!

Going to Ant and Catherine just now, playing a round of golf, then lunch tomorrow in Kew, then back to Oxford, and hopefully Henley if I can get there...

Oxford Africa Conference

The Oxford Africa conference, which I helped organize was staged three weeks ago at the Said Business School... dad spoke on two of the panels, about SME's and agriculture, and all in all, was a great success. It was a full day event, with dinner at St. Anthony's in the evening, and much learn't about investment and business in Africa, and contracts made all round... Africa has huge potential as a frontier market, and I hope to be involved in the game one day...

Went with dad to the Hart's farm for lunch in Oxford on the Saturday... Such hospitable people, and lovely, sunny English day spent sipping pimm's and braaing..

Finished Oxford Brookes University

Well, I have now finished at Brookes... Graduation on 24th June... what awaits now? Well, for the time being, the feeling hasnt really sunk in yet, although I feel a tinge of despair occasionally, when I get a break from BMW, thinking, that.... the work life has now started!! No more lazy lie in's, or parties that go on all night, and doesnt matter if you late for lectures (or wreaking of alcohol!!

But, I think Brookes has prepared me well... Not just academically, but I feel I have become more worldly, more purposeful, and perhaps, more resourceful... Time will tell though... For now, am just enjoying the brilliance of Oxford... Attending talks by world leading professors, trying to plan my travels, and arranging final drinks with some people, who sadly, may not see for a long time yet...

I will write the first of my essays 'on leaving university' in the next couple of months...

Poverty sucks...

It really does...

With almost zero balances in the account, rents to pay, bills to pay, food to buy, etc. etc, it is pretty hard to sustain a 'student lifestyle' that I have had for the past few years... I started a job at BMW doing temp work and it is certainly the worst job I have had. The pay is good though... Rising at 5am (not since rowing days have I risen so early), clock in by 6am and work through till 5pm! Even Aristotle would be proud of that... The people are incredibly different to any other 'profile' of people that I have met whilst being in the UK. Your typical working class... They all read the tabloids such as the sun (ironic as it's a conservative paper), covered top down in tatoos, chat about the footy, buy BMW's on 'company schemes', or rather rent them out from the company, and 'init, init, init'... But, they are a cheerful bunch nonetheless... I just cannot see how they live like that for years on end. Rise, go to work, put a light or something on 400 cars per day, go home, sleep. And watch the footy on the weekend with the lads, and also, drive to the footy, in the new, roofless BMW... I think the worst thing about it is one, the lost freedom, where one has to be constantly working-there is no time to read an interesting article, or a book or something, or even to go outside and soak in some sun... Also, the environment I find prison like, with the unforgiving sirens that start and stop work, dead on time, and some of the managers prowing around looking for any mishaps going on... It must be better than Foxconn though...

May day eve

May day, for asome absurd reason, is the biggest eventt of the year for Oxford. It results in partying all night, jumping off the main bridge into the river at dawn (although police now cordon off the bridge) to prevent bodily harm. Alas, with a coursework due on Tuesday (I have to get over 80% to secure a first for this subject), and an independent study due in later next week, and an exam the following week, it is all getting a bit close. Do I go out? It's the last May day in Oxford for me...

Well, books aside for a bit, nip over to Tesco for some dinner, and Paxman interviewing Brown at 8.30pm. Then, i'll decide.

Age of Austerity beckons, Asia and Africa call

With the lib dems fighting back heroically, it looks set to be a definite hung parliament. Whatever the politicians say, taxes will have to go up soon, to avoid an insomountable debt mountain to build that would more than likely to end up like Greece.

I love England, especialy Oxford, and can think of very few better places to study than the UK to get international exposure/experts in all fields. But to work, I don't think so. Taxes going up, costs here, bills there, not to mention the freezing weather, all points to go travelling I think. Flights booked to India in ~August, which I am looking forward to, and then hopefully a bit of travelling around the region, then Africa next year.

In the meantime though, there's much work, and play to be done...

Egypt

I met the family in Egypt for a week over Easter, for what was supposed to be a surprise. However, the surprise was spoiled the night before!

We stayed at the Hilton in Cairo first night which was great, then left first thing the next morning (family only checked in at 4am) for the aiport and a flight to Luxor. Luxor was very hot, and spent the affternnon looking around the temples of Luxor and Karnak. We cruised down the Nile (upstream-one of the few rivers to flow upstream from north to south). Cruised to temple of Enfu, then Aswan was the final stop. A tour of the dam, perfume factory, and other tourist attractions. The cruise was absolutely fantastic. The days were very hot, but were spent in the lovely cold swimming pool, snoozing in the air conditioned rooms, or reading on the deck. Early evening from about 4.30pm to 7pm was probably the best time, as the sun started to go down and the heat began to lift. Food was brilliant with a full course buffet three times a day, and tour guide, Khaled, very good too.

We flew back to Cairo, in what started as a shaky start on the Embraer-could think of just about any place in the world to crash than the Sahara desert! In Cairo, we checked back into the hotel-temperature about ten degrees cooler in Cairo. Went to the Cairo Museum to see Tutankhamen's tomb treasures, then a cruise in the evening and after the family flew back to Harare, I stayed the night then left crack of dawn to the airport and back to Heathrow.

Lies, damned lies...

With the prospect of a hung parliament looming, Brown and the Labour party feel they have a strong possibility of remaining in Downing Street. Labour has a 'machoivillian mindset' and it seems it is working.

Let's separate facts from fiction... Britain has a fiscal deficit of nearly 200 billion pounds. This means that they have spent 200 hundred billion than they have received. And yet Darling's pre-election budget has promised 'halving' the deficit... and the electorate seem to believe him.

Since coming into power, labour have slyly modified the electoral system, providing a huge buffera against losses. There are traditionally 600 constituencies in the UK. But Labour have combined some conservative strongholds of two into one constituency, whereas they have expanded Labour's from 1 into 2. This means, that give or take a few, Labour can lose to the conservatives by nearly 10% and still have a majority!

But, one wanders if the conservatives can do any better? Recent repots suggest otherwise. In the elections probably on May 6th, Britain goes to vote. I won't.

Time for a break

I have just come back from squash and now sitting with a cup of tea in front of the computer. It is a typical overcast, drizzly, (but at least not cold) March day... I am doing final tweaks to a coursework that is due in tomorrow then got one for next week, and then i'm done, for Easter...

I have now booked my flight to India, for the 13th August, so I can kind of say my summer has started! Been reading some books on India and Nepal for the trek over the past few days and getting really, excited, even though it is still five months away... never-the-less, much to be done before then...

Rhodes House

I have been sitting in the Rhodes House library all morning. Looking outside, there is drizzling gently onto the surrounding gardens and buildings. I have been working on my independent study, which is falling behind. It is quite surreal, to be sitting here, reading theses and an expanse of literature on agriculture in Zimbabwe, thousands of miles away. Coming from an agricultural background, it seems so close, but yet far, all the events of the past fifteen years that has shaped the Zimbabwean economy, and country! The library is fantastic. Rhodes House was built after CJ Rhodes died, in his legacy. There is everything one could hope for in the stacks at the bottom of the library and very pleasant work environment. I certainly hope to be back here one day to do more studies.

St. Peter's game and party

A pleasant weekend in Oxford-got round to some work on Saturday morning, and then had the annual st. Peters old boys rugby match in the afternoon. A rusty, as always performance, and marketly unfit, but nono-the-less, a fun game, which is all that matters. In the end we won 10-7. Dinner at 7.30pm in the St. Peter's dining hall which was really good fun-except that they didn't provide wine which was supposed to be included in the somewhat overpriced bill (25 pounds per person). There was the usual singing and warchants (for lack of a better experession) and then on to the purple turtle for after party. A good night, except that it has taken almost a full day to recover, and hence missed most of what was the warmest day this year-can you believe it-we got to 12 degrees centigrade!! It's funny what different expectations do to you. In Zim, 12 degrees would be a very cold winters day, where here, because its been hovering around freezing point all winter, a slightly warmer day really gets everyone excited.

Spring!

Today was one of the first days that I felt that Spring was actually here, and that this cold weather may actually be passing! Nice blue skies, warm rays, and the flowers are starting to sprout... Good start to the day with a swim this morning and now the dissitation will be the focus for the rest of the day. I have decided, after much chopping and changing to do it on whether land tenure security actually increases agricultural performance in Africa. From the literature I have been reading, some interesting and surprising conclusions have come up! Anyway, watch this spot in about two or three months time!

Well, the supervisor is starting to get a bit irritated that I haven't done enough on the report, so despite the nice weather, it's to the books!

The Trouble with Democracy

The British election will be held in about May, perhaps earlier seeing that Brown and the Labour party are growing in confidence, after narrowing the Conservatives lead by around 5 points, which means there is a great possibility of a hung election, where no party has an outright majority.

Democracy, for all it is worth, is ruining Britain by the day. Politicians are there to tell the electorate what they want to hear, at the same time as doing favours for their industrial friends who will vote them into power. Median voter theory tells us that politicians aim to select the 'median' set of voters in the country, and then look at swinging policy in their favour. In Britain, the median voter is about age 45, so, the more or less elderly.

One of the main election topics is pensions. Since the median voters are fairly old, they will be very interested in how the government is going to look after them in their old age. Thus, the government inevitably promises increased pensions/better care etc. The only trouble is that it is the youngsters who bare the brunt of this policy, and to make matters worse, they 'aren't interested in politics' and would rather spend the time enjoying themselves. The effects are only felt later in life.

Another aspect of politics is that of 'rent seeking' where select individuals and groups lobby goverment to pass laws in their favour. An example is the automobile industry or CAP (common agricultural policy). It really is rediculous. How can a few farmers (i.e. less than 5% of this country) benefit so much at the expense of the rest of the population? Why couldnt the government instead to favours for haid dressers, or corner shops? The reason is that these groups have voting power and will get the government into power.

So what happens, is there is a 'spiralling' of spending, to appease the median voters which simply increases borrowing or taxes and sooner or later, well, surely the country goes bust. Europe is on the brink of bankruptcy. For all the good that democracy brings, I think there are better alternatives.

Student Elections

I am still trying to understand the rational for holding student elections at Brookes. Year in, year out, those running for office put out campaigns (see link) setting out their manifestos about how great they are going to make the university and better our lives as students. My concern, is firstly, how can the electorate, i.e. the students who vote, hold the committee accountable for their promises, if they are only in power for one year-perhaps by some student riot or something which will undoubtedly be quelled by the newly funded Brookes 'community officers'. But, for this to happen, you have to get the students out of bed (who are probably hungover). Secondly, how are they going to get the money to put their plans in order when it seems the university is cutting costs everywhere (including shutting down the SU)? So, when the ballot boxes open, it should be a good opportunity for some well earned sleep.

http://www.thesu.com/news/index.php?page=article&news_id=133313

Valentines, Cuppers and Montaigne

Is Valentines Day genuinely about love and red roses, or simply commercial exploitation? According to the Card Association, more than a billion dollars worth of cards are sold on the occasion, second only to Christmas Day in that regard. Apparently, Valentines Day is mostly a UK/US thing, with much of the world partially dismissing the occasion. It is a day when it is lonely to be single, as all your friends are cuddling away in their rooms, but then again, an opportunity arises, since most people out on their own, are single... Anyway, my valentines evening consisted of going to Rauls, a cocktail bar in Oxford which was pleasant, apart from the fact that two cocktails went for 13 pounds (2 hours worth of work). Well, at least Mr. Darling will be putting some of the days proceeds into closing the budget deficit!

Since being back in Oxford, 'Cuppers' the inter-collogial rugby tournament has being going on. By default, St. Peters got through to the quarter finals, but were well and truly shown our place, by a very strong Keble, who put a-wait for it-76 points past us! Anyway, a loss was expected, and we more than made up for it in the pub later that night...

I have been reading a book called 'How to Live' which is a series of essays by Montaigne, a French philosopher from the 16th century. I will be putting weekly synopsis on my blog, as I think it has useful lessons for all of us.

Film review-Mugabe and the White African

I was fortunate enough to have watched 'Mugabe and the White African' whilst it was in Oxford last night, and to have the directors there to answer questions after the film.

It was a sell out crowd and we just managed to get seats in time. The documentary was 100% real time, i.e. nothing had been reconstructed, and some of the filming was done in dangerous circumstances, such as when Campbell had an argument with Webster Shamu's son (which he must be kicking himself for now after noticing he was being filmed because of some of the ridiculous statements he made). Particularly alarming was when Ben Freeth's parents received the phone calls to say that Mike and Ben had been abducted and they didn't know the wherebouts of.

The film brought out the worst of the country-so much so that it made it seem like a completely failed state, which it is not-but perhaps, this was necessary to get the appeal. Similarly, as one of the people in the audience pointed out (whos father in fact received land under the reform process) that not all land went to the black middle class elite. Another comment was that the film could be perceived to be sticking up for a white racist? And perhaps, most importantly as the title of the film would suggest-is it possible for a white to be classed as an African? Ben would say yes, but Mugabe, no.

All in all, a brilliantly made, albeit emotional film, and nice to have a bit of the spotlight on Zimbabwe! I am doing my independent study on land reform on Zimbabwe, and so it was an apt excuse for some work and also a bit of entertainment at the same time!

lottery cursed

It is said that if Warren Buffett lost all his money tomorrow, he would be able to make it back pretty quickly (or most of it). When you hear that someone has won the lottery are you jealous? Last week, a middle aged man won 56 million pounds in the euro millions lottery. Today, I saw that someone has had to put his 9 million pound mansion up for sale because he has gone broke. (see link below).

What causes some people to lose money so quickly and others to have the knack of making it just as fast? 'Easy come, easy go'. It is a very true statement. All the fat-cats who made money so quickly when Gono was printing money and put it into unsustainable consumptions such as mansions have all gone bust!-drive around Harare and look at how many half finished houses there are! Random events such as winning the lottery are just that-random/chance, whatever you want to call it. And because it is won by chance, it is also lost just as easily, by chance... And those who work hard for money, funnily, actually hold onto it!

So, one wanders how long it will take for Joe Bloggs to flog off his mansion...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1251889/Lotto-Lout-Michael-Carroll-forced-sell-luxury-home-complete-dog-faeces-blood-stained-walls-fleet-smashed-cars.html

http://uk.video.yahoo.com/watch/7002451/18206404

Paul Collier talk

Paul Collier is probably the best known development economist with a specialization on Africa. He has written a particularly famous book 'The Bottom Billion' and just released two more. I have been wanting to meet him for the past couple of years, given my interest in economic development, always knowing that he was just round the corner from me, at the University of Oxford, and finally got a chance yesterday when he spoke at the Oxford Union.

He mainly focused on Africa and resources and said interesting things like how the tax systems in Africa are totally wrong and therefore they get a minute amount of 'rent' from extracted resources. For example, Zambia received very little in tax revenues from copper exports, during the recent boom. When they tried to rectify the problem, the multi-nationals said the taxes were too high, so after some negotiation, they reduced them again. Alas, during the next boom, again, they recieved very little in the way of rents.



He also spoke about his initiative for a natural resource charter (http://www.naturalresourcecharter.org/). An excerpt from the website is shown below:

The Natural Resource Charter is a set of principles for governments and societies on how to use the opportunities created by natural resources effectively. Some of the poorest countries in the world have large amounts of natural resources and these can provide a pathway out of poverty. Yet in the past, these opportunities have often been missed, and resource abundant countries have consequently remained poor.
Natural resources have the potential to be transformative if they are properly harnessed for development. However, the value chain from the discovery of natural assets through to their conversion into a productive economy is long and complex. This is why the process has so often been unsuccessful.

The Natural Resource Charter seeks to provide guidelines and standards to inform and improve natural resource management. It aims to ensure that the opportunities provided by new discoveries and commodity booms will never again be missed.

Which is the right path to follow?

I was reading Gregory Mankiw's blog this evening about his advice to economics student and he came up with this passage from a book.

'when it comes to choosing a life path, you should do what you love — because if you don't love it, you are unlikely to work hard enough to get very good. Most people naturally don't want to do things they aren't 'good' at. So they often give up, telling themselves they simply don't possess the talent for math or skiing or the violin. But what they really lack is the desire to be good and to undertake the deliberate practice that would make them better'

Freakonomics by S. Levitt and S. Dubner

The point should be qualified though... Someone may love playing rugby, or rowing, but if they lack the physical cababilities associated with these sports such as aggression, or stamina or height, then they are unlikely to be able to make a decent career of it, especially with the immense competition of modern day sport. And then there is the important, but often neglected element of randomness, or 'luck' which comes with life. Taleb (Fooled by Randomness) touches on this, and I think it is very relevant. Think of a team manager, who everyone thinks is going to be dismal, but who ends up being really good-is this skill or chance? The Springbok rugby coach comes to mind.... I feel all to often it is chance.

I was deciding whether to do econometrics or not as a module, but dropped the idea because I felt my maths wasn't good enough.. According to Levitt et al, if I really wanted to do it, then I should have done it, and then I would have practiced a lot and eventually got a good grade for it. But, it involved a tradeoff between losing out on time on other stuff which I could have done and spending hours doing econometrics. Besides, did I really want to go into a career of academia and coming up with great theories that never get implemented by politicians? Probably not... although it really is too early to tell.

Onto the final straight

After a long flight back to the UK, I got the bus back to Oxford and was literally freezing cold... The boiler had stopped working due to it being switched off over the holiday, and so we had no hot water or heating for five days! My grandfather's adage was 'suffer a bit' and this certainly was suffering! But, the plumber came and sorted it on Monday and that raised spirits-it's amazing how we often find satisfaction in the smaller things in life...

I didn't have much of a break as lectures started the next day and with the reading already piling on, we're into the last semester! EVER of undergraduate study! pretty daunting, but also exciting I suppose in that you move out of this protected, comfortable environment into the 'real world' as they say... A lot of final years are applying for postgrads-which is not surprising given the recession and few jobs. I am slowly gathering together a plan for when I leave, but so many options-travel, post grad, work???

Well, the plane has been taxying on the runway, and now, is gathering momentum in order to take-off in May. It is all in my hands. From the last set of results, I am just below a first-in order to get into a postgrad, I need to get a first. But with only four marks left, and some challenging modules to tackle, it will be a serious challenge. But then, what is life without challenges?

Some of the finer things in life

One thing I really look forward to whenever I am back is being hosted by our friends the Williams'. Whether it is fine wines, French cheese, Brazilian coffee, single malt whiskys, the best of classical music, the Williams have it...

During our poker game last week, Matthew, brought out his 21st present which was a bottle of 1987 Meerlust, cabernet sauvignon (see link below). I couldn't even try to be a wine connoisseur, but it really was brilliant. After maturing for over 20 years, what else would you expect? We then tasted a selection of other wines from that period. One only had about 5 minutes to drink the wine, as it was oxidizing so quickly after all those years in the bottle. One was corked-something new I learn't from Roger is that corked means there is a virus in the cork.

Anyway, we continued our game, of which I managed to regain my $5, but lost out on a potential $40!







http://www.meerlust.com/index.php/meerlust-rubicon-1987.html

Mozambique-09/10

Mozambique is an amazing, but unfortunate country. Almost exactly double the size of Zimbabwe, it is one of the poorest states in the world. It has access to the coast, very fertile land, and brilliant opportunities for tourism-why is it so poor?

I put three reasons-one, colonisation: whilst Zimbabwe and other states benefited hugely from British colonialism, in the form of infrastructure, industry and agriculture, and also a very well organized administration system, the Portuguese colonised Mozambique. One can see just from driving through the country, how disorganized the Portuguese were-houses scattered all over the place, and little sound infrastructure, agriculture and industry.

Linked to this is the second reason, the civil war which raged from 1977 to 1992 between Frelimo and Renamo. This resulted in any expertise to leave the country, many deaths, and of course, huge damage to the economy.

Thirdly, the climate. Being tropical, Mozambique is extremely hot, and because of its low altitude, is very prone to mosquitos and malaria. I feel this plays a massive part in the undevelopment of the country.

So, how to fix it? Eradicate malaria, promote agriculture as an economic base, and open the Beira corridor to the port. In other words, big investment-and I feel there is huge potential, particularly in agriculture.

The eight days spent in Mozambique was fantastic. Maybe it is only unique, to Africa, perhaps I am wrong, but personally, I lose complete sense of time when on holiday in Africa. You put a cossie on in the morning, which is usually about 6.30am when the sun is already burning hot, and all day is spent, boating and tubing, sitting next to the pool with a beer and a book, chatting to mates, or whizzing across to Paradise Island for lunch. It really is relaxation and so important I feel, to completely clear your head and rercharge the batteries for another semester, work etc.

New year was on the beach, and co-incided with a brilliant full moon, and partial eclipse-perhaps this means a good year, or decade for Africa? Time will tell...

Christmas

I left London on 21st December and due to a short delay, it meant I missed the connection flight from Nairobi to Harare. This meant having to stay in Nairobi the night and missed Alistair's 25th party which was a shame! Anyway, they did put us in a 5 star hotel and had a good afternoon of swimming and sitting by the bar drinking Tuskers with some other stranded passengers. I always find it interesting who you meet on flights. On this occasion, a member of the famous 'Leakey' family who discovered human archaelogical remains in Kenya/Tanzania; the president of Cambridge Uni rowing club, Tony Blair's right hand man, and Emma's ex's brother!

Last Christmas I swore I would never fly Kenya airways again, however, I did, and alas, our bags got stranded at the airport for a couple of days. Nairobi airport must be the worst airport I have ever been to! Disoganized, crowded, hot, delays, lost baggage......

Anyway, finally got back home, and we went to Ruwa to Cathy and Alistair's farm for Christmas eve which was really enjoyable.

Christmas day was at our house, where we had a late supper/lunch, followed by Boxing Day at our house with the Brown family, our longtime family friends. 27th at Roger and Nona's for the 60th, and 28th we went to Mozambique!