Lies, damned lies...

With the prospect of a hung parliament looming, Brown and the Labour party feel they have a strong possibility of remaining in Downing Street. Labour has a 'machoivillian mindset' and it seems it is working.

Let's separate facts from fiction... Britain has a fiscal deficit of nearly 200 billion pounds. This means that they have spent 200 hundred billion than they have received. And yet Darling's pre-election budget has promised 'halving' the deficit... and the electorate seem to believe him.

Since coming into power, labour have slyly modified the electoral system, providing a huge buffera against losses. There are traditionally 600 constituencies in the UK. But Labour have combined some conservative strongholds of two into one constituency, whereas they have expanded Labour's from 1 into 2. This means, that give or take a few, Labour can lose to the conservatives by nearly 10% and still have a majority!

But, one wanders if the conservatives can do any better? Recent repots suggest otherwise. In the elections probably on May 6th, Britain goes to vote. I won't.

Time for a break

I have just come back from squash and now sitting with a cup of tea in front of the computer. It is a typical overcast, drizzly, (but at least not cold) March day... I am doing final tweaks to a coursework that is due in tomorrow then got one for next week, and then i'm done, for Easter...

I have now booked my flight to India, for the 13th August, so I can kind of say my summer has started! Been reading some books on India and Nepal for the trek over the past few days and getting really, excited, even though it is still five months away... never-the-less, much to be done before then...

Rhodes House

I have been sitting in the Rhodes House library all morning. Looking outside, there is drizzling gently onto the surrounding gardens and buildings. I have been working on my independent study, which is falling behind. It is quite surreal, to be sitting here, reading theses and an expanse of literature on agriculture in Zimbabwe, thousands of miles away. Coming from an agricultural background, it seems so close, but yet far, all the events of the past fifteen years that has shaped the Zimbabwean economy, and country! The library is fantastic. Rhodes House was built after CJ Rhodes died, in his legacy. There is everything one could hope for in the stacks at the bottom of the library and very pleasant work environment. I certainly hope to be back here one day to do more studies.

St. Peter's game and party

A pleasant weekend in Oxford-got round to some work on Saturday morning, and then had the annual st. Peters old boys rugby match in the afternoon. A rusty, as always performance, and marketly unfit, but nono-the-less, a fun game, which is all that matters. In the end we won 10-7. Dinner at 7.30pm in the St. Peter's dining hall which was really good fun-except that they didn't provide wine which was supposed to be included in the somewhat overpriced bill (25 pounds per person). There was the usual singing and warchants (for lack of a better experession) and then on to the purple turtle for after party. A good night, except that it has taken almost a full day to recover, and hence missed most of what was the warmest day this year-can you believe it-we got to 12 degrees centigrade!! It's funny what different expectations do to you. In Zim, 12 degrees would be a very cold winters day, where here, because its been hovering around freezing point all winter, a slightly warmer day really gets everyone excited.

Spring!

Today was one of the first days that I felt that Spring was actually here, and that this cold weather may actually be passing! Nice blue skies, warm rays, and the flowers are starting to sprout... Good start to the day with a swim this morning and now the dissitation will be the focus for the rest of the day. I have decided, after much chopping and changing to do it on whether land tenure security actually increases agricultural performance in Africa. From the literature I have been reading, some interesting and surprising conclusions have come up! Anyway, watch this spot in about two or three months time!

Well, the supervisor is starting to get a bit irritated that I haven't done enough on the report, so despite the nice weather, it's to the books!

The Trouble with Democracy

The British election will be held in about May, perhaps earlier seeing that Brown and the Labour party are growing in confidence, after narrowing the Conservatives lead by around 5 points, which means there is a great possibility of a hung election, where no party has an outright majority.

Democracy, for all it is worth, is ruining Britain by the day. Politicians are there to tell the electorate what they want to hear, at the same time as doing favours for their industrial friends who will vote them into power. Median voter theory tells us that politicians aim to select the 'median' set of voters in the country, and then look at swinging policy in their favour. In Britain, the median voter is about age 45, so, the more or less elderly.

One of the main election topics is pensions. Since the median voters are fairly old, they will be very interested in how the government is going to look after them in their old age. Thus, the government inevitably promises increased pensions/better care etc. The only trouble is that it is the youngsters who bare the brunt of this policy, and to make matters worse, they 'aren't interested in politics' and would rather spend the time enjoying themselves. The effects are only felt later in life.

Another aspect of politics is that of 'rent seeking' where select individuals and groups lobby goverment to pass laws in their favour. An example is the automobile industry or CAP (common agricultural policy). It really is rediculous. How can a few farmers (i.e. less than 5% of this country) benefit so much at the expense of the rest of the population? Why couldnt the government instead to favours for haid dressers, or corner shops? The reason is that these groups have voting power and will get the government into power.

So what happens, is there is a 'spiralling' of spending, to appease the median voters which simply increases borrowing or taxes and sooner or later, well, surely the country goes bust. Europe is on the brink of bankruptcy. For all the good that democracy brings, I think there are better alternatives.

Student Elections

I am still trying to understand the rational for holding student elections at Brookes. Year in, year out, those running for office put out campaigns (see link) setting out their manifestos about how great they are going to make the university and better our lives as students. My concern, is firstly, how can the electorate, i.e. the students who vote, hold the committee accountable for their promises, if they are only in power for one year-perhaps by some student riot or something which will undoubtedly be quelled by the newly funded Brookes 'community officers'. But, for this to happen, you have to get the students out of bed (who are probably hungover). Secondly, how are they going to get the money to put their plans in order when it seems the university is cutting costs everywhere (including shutting down the SU)? So, when the ballot boxes open, it should be a good opportunity for some well earned sleep.

http://www.thesu.com/news/index.php?page=article&news_id=133313